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Hazard Threat, Vulnerability, and Risk Mapping Tools
Building an EMPIRICAL AND PLACE-BASED Risk representation
Building an EMPIRICAL AND PLACE-BASED Risk representation
A complete risk assessment requires four (4) basic steps, including: hazard threat identification; profiling of hazard events; inventory of assets (vulnerability); and an estimate of potential human and economic losses (severity of consequences) based on exposure and vulnerability of people, buildings, infrastructure[1], and historical/cultural resources.
This R2C AOI risk assessment utilizes the DHS extended risk definition.[2] Here, risk is the potential for an adverse outcome assessed as a function of threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences associated with an incident, event, or occurrence. The Hazard Analysis and coupled Risk Assessment portion of this document are partitioned into four (4) distinct sections strictly following DHS guidance: Threat Assessment, Vulnerability Assessment, Severity of Consequences Assessment, and the combination of these three (3) resulting in Risk Assessment. A focus first on Severity of Consequences provides an introduction to the hazards being identified and enables a straightforward transition into hazard identification/frequency analysis, and the combination of SOC and hazard threats to ascertain hazard risks for the R2C AOI.
Click HERE to explore threat maps for your area
Hazard Threats (Step 1 in the risk assessment process) show us where hazard threats have occurred in the past or are likely to occur in the future. Hazard Threats are the spatial representations (geographic areas) where threats have occurred in the past and associated recurrence internal data related to these threats OR the geo-statistically generated risk values such as those associated with 100 year flood zones, storm surge, or earthquake peek ground acceleration.
Identifying vulnerabilities (Step 2 in the risk assessment process) are the locality’s pre-existing characteristics (social, population, lifelines) that may intersect with hazard threats to create risk. Places with higher social vulnerability have a lower capacity to prepare for, respond to, and rebound from disasters. Places with higher population vulnerability simply have more people who will be in need of goods and services during disasters. Higher lifeline vulnerability occurs in places with more community lifeline and critical infrastructure.
Click HERE to explore your area's severity of consequence scores
Severity of Consequences not only included historical losses, but also possible climate sensitivities, current high priority hazards, and those likely to cause continued losses if not mitigated. Consequently, this assessment calculates Severity of Consequences (Equation 6: Severity of Consequences Calculation) using equal parts Historical Consequence, Climate Sensitivity, a measure of probability versus consequence, and a measure of future impacts (or high priority hazards for the R2C AOI) derived from the current Hazard Mitigation Plans from AOI counties.
Click HERE to explore overall hazard risk for your area
Hazard Risk is a combination of underlying threats, composite vulnerability, and severity of consequences. It is important to note that risk is derived from the combination of a hazard, assets and people exposed, and high enough severity of consequences that impacts to lives and livelihoods may be realized. Places where each of these three is not present will not have a risk or will have a very low risk. For example, a county area that has historically been exposed to hurricane force winds will only have hurricane with risk if it has people, vulnerable people, or community lifelines in the area of exposure.
[1] United States. FEMA. Hazard Mitigation Planning. Accessed at: https://www.fema.gov/hazard-identification-and-risk-assessment .
[2] Department of Homeland Security. DHS Risk Lexicon. September 2008. Accessed at: https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/dhs_risk_lexicon.pdf.
Follow along on our risk assessment journey, process, and implementation with this interactive ESRI storymap
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Contact christopher.emrich@ucf.edu to get more information on the project
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